At least 101 million people in Europe – including more than 50 million in France and 18 million in Germany – are expected to experience temperatures above 35°C at some point on Thursday, according to AFP’s calculations.
In total, maximum temperatures are expected to exceed 30°C for more than 380 million people in Europe (excluding Turkey), representing nearly two-thirds of the population.
This analysis, based on forecasts from the German Meteorological Service and the Joint Research Centre’s population projections for 2025, is in line with figures from the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard.
These figures are higher than the German institute’s forecasts calculated the previous day at 00:00 GMT on Wednesday. At that time, temperatures above 35°C were expected for 94 million people.
As on the previous day, the area hardest hit by the heatwave is mainland France, where some 63 million people are expected to experience temperatures of over 30°C on Thursday, including 53 million in areas where temperatures will exceed 35°C.
Temperatures are also expected to exceed 30°C for more than 70 million people in Germany, 48 million in Italy and 38 million in the United Kingdom.
These temperatures are expected to affect much of Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, and further east, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia.
To arrive at these figures, AFP used a method similar to that of Klimadashboard, cross-referencing the weather forecast model from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), the German meteorological service – calculated at 03:00 GMT (05:00 Belgian time) – with population density data. Residents of an area are counted if the model forecasts temperatures above 30 or 35°C at that location at some point on Thursday.
As the model has an accuracy of around 6.5 km, it cannot fully reflect urban heat islands, David Jablonski of the NGO Klimadashboard told AFP. Consequently, the analysis “probably underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas”, the organisation states on its “European Heat Tracker” website.
In Italy, the heatwave has killed four people, with 17 cities currently on red alert, the highest warning level in the country's monitoring system.
Spanish authorities said on Thursday they believe that the 212 deaths between Sunday and Wednesday in the country may be attributable to the heatwave, as revealed on Thursday by data from the Carlos III Health Institute in Madrid.
France's red alerts
Over fifty million people in France remain under red alert as the heatwave continues, with temperatures expected to peak on Thursday before easing slightly in the evening along the Atlantic coast.
A total of 72 departments are under red alert, marking Thursday as potentially the most intense day of the heatwave that began earlier this week.
Temperatures are forecast to reach "exceptionally high" levels again, after hitting 43.8°C in Palluau (Vendée) on Wednesday, according to Météo-France.
Across the affected areas, spanning from the southwest to the northeast, 51.1 million people are under red alert. This includes 5.6 million individuals aged 75 and older, according to AFP.
In its updated bulletin at 06:00, Météo-France announced that red alert status was lifted overnight in 11 western departments. These areas, including all departments along the Atlantic coast, as well as Manche, Côtes-d’Armor, and Hautes-Pyrénées, will move to orange alert at 10 pm.
Friday is expected to bring a gradual decrease in temperatures on the Atlantic coast as thunderstorms break the heatwave overnight into Thursday evening, according to Météo-France.
From 16:00 the departments of Côtes-d’Armor, Ille-et-Vilaine, and Manche will shift to orange alert for thunderstorms. By 18:00 the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Landes, Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne, Dordogne, Hautes-Pyrénées, and Gers will follow.
