BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
The UK government decided this week to rejoin the EU’s multi-billion euro research scheme, Horizon Europe. Talk of this being the first step in an inevitable reversal of Brexit is probably premature though.
When the UK left the EU, some sort of membership of Horizon Europe and participation in the Earth-monitoring satellite network, Copernicus, was always on the cards. Erasmus and Galileo were either cast aside or never on the table to begin with.
But scientific access was put on ice when a spat over rules applying to Northern Ireland derailed talks. The EU’s research division moved on to talks with other partners like New Zealand and UK-based scientists began to fear they would be left in limbo forever.
After political divisions were sorted out, a deal became more likely and, finally, this week it came to fruition. This is not a reversal of the Brexit decision though, so it should not be touted as the beginning of a triumphant return to the EU fold.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
The UK’s Horizon delay summed up Brexit quite nicely: undermined by a political dispute that most people either were not familiar with or did not care about; frustratingly complex; and deeply damaging to those most affected by it.
Researchers and scientists were left out in the cold, as funding applications could not be submitted and, as time went by, concerns about losing out on millions of euros in support began to grow. Homegrown schemes were insufficient, the threat of brain drain was real.
Beyond the financial ramifications, UK-based parties were unable to commit to international partnerships and projects because they could not guarantee that they would be able to meet their funding contributions. This damage may be difficult to repair, deal notwithstanding.
Better late than never though, as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that “the EU and UK are key strategic partners and allies, and today's agreement proves that point. We will continue to be at the forefront of global science and research.”
Buried in the fine print of the press materials, one nugget that reflects the new reality that the UK has crafted for itself: an annual fee for participation in Horizon and Copernicus of €2.6 billion. There is no such thing as a free lunch after all.
The fact that the UK will not have to pay for the three years it missed out on has been trumpeted as a huge victory, as has a new “clawback mechanism” that will act as a rebate if scientists receive lower funding amounts. This is the bare minimum, not a stunning gambit.
Government PR was less quick to point out that if UK scientists receive grants totalling more than the UK contribution, then the €2.6bn annual fee will be increased. Westminster might be hoping that ‘Great British Research’ falls short of that high-water mark.
British energy scientists working on new fusion power will, however, have to go it alone as the UK pulled up short of associating to the bloc’s Euratom treaty. This shows that politics and financial fears are still plaguing the minds of government officials.
It might also show that this is not the first domino in a chain reaction that will inevitably lead the UK back into the EU as a full time member. Horizon membership was after all a stated aim and even that took years to achieve.
Other programmes like Erasmus, electric car tax rules and – whisper it quietly – freedom of movement, were never a part of the exit deal. Diverting from that plan is a huge ask, for both sides.
Any kind of progress or demonstration of interest in those areas would be a more powerful sign that Brexit is in reverse. Do not hold your breath anytime soon.
Unstable solution?
One question all this does pose is whether this is a sustainable solution. As a partner country, the UK will have no say over policy. You pay your membership fee, get access and the rest is up to you.
This is arguably the opposite of the precious ‘sovereignty’ leave voters wanted to wrestle back from Brussels. Given that a significant portion of UK voters still believe in the leave cause, it seems improbable that more deals like this would be welcomed.
Rule-taking ranks below rule-making.
So if pro-EU advocates want more of this sort of thing and a clearer path back towards either full membership or a relationship akin to what, for example, Norway enjoys, then they need to spell out why closer alignment is consistent with ideas of ‘sovereignty’.
Sovereign nations are able to make decisions that benefit both the state and its people. Horizon is a perfect example of that. The logic can also be applied to many other areas that would follow closer ties with the mainland.
A change of government is likely coming next year but the true intentions of the Labour Party are still somewhat of a mystery. How a Keir Starmer-led government would approach the relationship with the EU is hard to gauge.
Perhaps the Horizon and Copernicus deals could be test cases that Labour could take ownership of, adding agreements on less contentious issues like Erasmus and mobile phone roaming to build up public acceptance for EU alignment.
Essentially, a route back to bloc membership might need a boiled frog strategy. Throw the amphibian (the British public) into a pot of scalding water (Schengen, the euro, freedom of movement) and they will leap back out to supposed safety, burned and angry.
Put the frog in cold water, though, and slowly increase the heat (Horizon, Copernicus), put the lid on for good measure (Erasmus, electric car trade rules) and wait 10 minutes for the water to boil (customs area etc), then you’re cooking a tasty meal.
This is not the rapid turnaround of Brexit that many – on both sides of the Channel – want. It will take time. But a quick reversal of the 2016 decision was never probable. Horizon might not be the spark but it could be a blueprint.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
