Behind the Scenes: The ties that bind

BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.

The leaks and sneak peeks had already told us what to expect: the European Commission would publish a recommendation for a new climate target to sit squarely between the 2030 and 2050 benchmarks that are already legally binding.

2040’s goal will aim for 90% net emission cuts, to bridge the gap between 2030’s 55% and mid-century’s climate neutrality. And that’s exactly what we got when climate heads Maroš Šefčović and Wopke Hoekstra officially announced it on Tuesday.

First, a bit of EU jargon-busting. This 2040 target is just a recommendation. It does not constitute any sort of legal document, it is not a legislative proposal and it does not formally commit the Commission to any sort of action.

The idea is that this is a signal of intent, a clue as to what is coming and a jolt to the European Parliament and Council to start talking among themselves about what they want from this target.

Herein lies the clue about von der Leyen’s intentions. 

When Jean-Claude Juncker’s Commission published its plan to make the EU climate neutral by 2050, it bound his successor to follow that up with a legal text. Von der Leyen’s administration did just that with 2021’s Climate Law.

Behind the Scenes caught up with a couple of Juncker-era officials, who confirmed that this was part of the thinking behind the ambitious 2050 plan. It was long enough in the future to fly partly under the political radar and the timing could not have worked out better.

Juncker never intended to run for a second term and his climate chief, Miguel Arias Cañete, retired that same year. Frans Timmermans, who was Juncker’s right-hand man, was all too happy to take on the Green Deal challenge when offered it by von der Leyen.

Now, we’re presented with a very different scenario.

If von der Leyen was not intending to run for a second term then this non-binding recommendation would have been at the top level of ambition. Not 90%, like what we got, but 95% or “at least 90%”.

Remember that the newly-created EU scientific advisory board had already reported that 90-95% is what the Union should be striving towards, in order to make 2050 feasible and to honour its international commitments.

When Wopke Hoekstra was interviewing for the climate job last year, he told MEPs that he would champion “at least” 90%. The decision to go for plain old 90% is a political one and it no doubt is one that was made in part by the president’s campaign team.

That is because it is clear which way the wind is blowing on green policies. Farmers have won concessions from the Commission and governments after noisily protesting for a couple of weeks, while climate marches have only achieved a gradual ratcheting-up of ambition.

The next European Parliament is likely to contain a bigger contingent of rightwing lawmakers and if von der Leyen wants to keep them sweet and take office again, she will need to convince them she is on Old McDonald’s side, not Greta Thunberg’s.

So that is why this 2040 announcement is all the proof Behind the Scenes needs to call it now. Ursula is running and we will be lucky if even 90% makes it into the final proposal either later this year or in 2025.

BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.