BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES
Weekly analysis with Sam Morgan
Ursula von der Leyen confirmed this week that she wants to serve another five years as European Commission. It marks the inevitable and entirely predictable death of the EU’s Spitzenkandidat process.
It was the worst kept secret in Brussels: Ursula von der Leyen was always going to seek a second term as Commission boss, particularly after a mooted bid for the NATO top job never materialised.
She will be the only candidate for the job put forward by the European People’s Party (EPP) and – unlike in previous years – she will not be seeking election to the European Parliament as part of her campaign.
Democracy appears to have died in the grey smog of Brussels.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
Spitzenkandidat never really got a chance at life. Even in 2014, during its freshman EU elections, the ‘lead candidate’ process was only given a run-out because the result was already largely known.
The EPP was odds-on to triumph in the pan-European vote and their pick for the job, Jean-Claude Juncker, was a palatable candidate for the Parliament and, most importantly, the Council.
So it came to pass. Juncker was anointed and served five years as Commission boss. Federalist-heads and pro-EU paladins hailed a great triumph for democracy and proclaimed that Spitz was here to stay. It was largely smoke and mirrors.
Would it have gone down that way if the Socialists or even the Left had emerged as victors after the elections? Would the European Council really have allowed Martin Schulz or Alexis Tsipras to lead the executive branch of the Union?
Behind the Scenes doubts that very much.
Spitzenkandidat existed for a brief moment when it aligned with national interests in 2014. In 2019, when Manfred Weber was the EPP’s inexplicable pick for the job, those interests no longer aligned and von der Leyen was given the crown.
In an alternate universe somewhere, the EPP chose Finland’s Alex Stubb – recently elected as president by Finns – and national leaders signed off on his Commission candidacy. Spitzenkandidat was honoured, even if again only because of circumstance.
Currently seeking re-election, this Stubb-variant has announced his candidacy and decision to resign in April in order to campaign as an MEP, safe in the knowledge that the Council will again give him the green light. Affable, proven experience of serving high-power positions and from a country that borders Russia, he checks all the boxes.
Until multiversal travel is invented (any day now), we will have to remain on this timeline, where Spitzenkandidat is dead. The zombie has been shot in the head and incinerated.
Given that Behind the Scenes hails from the British Isles, where we do not write down the fundamental laws of the land in a constitution, I can advise you that if you do not codify democratic norms, they can easily be ignored when it is convenient.
That was always Spitz’s biggest flaw: it was never made legally-binding. It existed thanks to the grace of prime ministers and presidents only. There is no democratic penalty for its executioners. Will it ever make a comeback? Not likely.
The reality
There is an argument to be made here that von der Leyen is the best candidate to lead the Commission for the next five years anyway. Continuity and stability are gold dust, given the immense geopolitical challenges weighing on Europe.
Von der Leyen’s tenure has hardly been flawless or even textbook. She and her administration have made mistakes, crafted underwhelming policies and kept the press at arm’s length.
But her time in office has also navigated the Covid-19 pandemic, written climate neutrality into law, put the Green Deal firmly into the mainstream and grappled with the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Could she have done better? Absolutely. Are there already signs that the next Commission will make many of the same mistakes and even undermine some of the good work it has done during this mandate? Seems so.
However, there is no such thing as a completely blank slate. Parachuting in a new manager to this particular team is not going to change much; indeed, in Behind the Scenes’ view, it would only cause disruption and waste valuable time.
The more important question will be who serves under the next Commission and what jobs will they do.
In the meantime, von der Leyen will “run again” for office. Maybe if the press and, more importantly, voters, keep throwing that lie back in her face, she will decide to actually run for the Parliament, briefly resurrecting the Spitz zombie.
BRUSSELS BEHIND THE SCENES includes weekly analysis not found anywhere else, as Sam Morgan helps you make sense of what is happening in Brussels. If you want to receive Brussels Behind the Scenes straight to your inbox every week, subscribe to the newsletter here.
