The National Planning Bureau expects that the workforce will increase by 198,000 people between 2025 and 2030.
This rise is largely attributed to higher labour market participation, particularly among older age groups. More than one-third of the employment growth will involve individuals aged 65 and over, the Planning Bureau reported on Wednesday, citing factors like the raised retirement age and a surge in retired individuals taking on flexible jobs.
Labour market and pension reforms are contributing to increased participation, although the Bureau points out that limiting the duration of unemployment benefits is expected to negatively impact the officially recorded workforce. However, it is anticipated that this measure will encourage some affected individuals to actively seek employment, thereby boosting job creation.
Net employment creation is projected to be 30,000 people this year and is expected to gradually accelerate as government measures take effect. Despite limited employment growth in the public sector, employment is forecast to rise by approximately 263,000 people from 2025 to 2030.
The employment rate (EU2020) is expected to increase from 72.3% in 2024 to 74.7% in 2030. The Bureau cautions that this indicator only covers those aged 20-64, even though more than one-third of the employment growth will involve those aged 65 and over.
Wage cost increases are predicted to remain modest, averaging 2.1% from 2025 to 2030. This is due to reductions in employer contributions and moderate growth in gross wages, which are suppressed by tax cuts, enhancements to social work bonuses, and measures to increase labour supply.
