The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly increased its forecast for global economic growth in 2025, citing lower-than-expected US tariffs as a positive factor.
The IMF now anticipates a 3% growth rate in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 2.8%. For 2026, the forecast has been adjusted from 3.0% to 3.1%.
Several factors contributed to the revised outlook, according to the IMF. Economic activity increased in anticipation of the expected US tariffs. Furthermore, trade agreements with lower tariffs than initially announced by Washington are encouraging developments.
“This tariff shock appears to be less severe than we predicted in April,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Improved financial conditions, partly due to a weaker dollar, and fiscal stimulus measures in key economies like China, Germany and the US also support the IMF’s optimism.
The growth forecast for the US this year has been raised from 1.8% to 1.9%. Projections for China (4.8%), the United Kingdom (1.2%), and Germany (0.1%) have also increased. The IMF report does not include an estimate for economic growth in Belgium.
