Most Antarctic ice shelves may disappear if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced, according to an international study published in 'Nature' magazine.
The study involved researcher Christoph Kittel from the Free University of Brussels, VUB, which shared its findings in a press release.
Ice shelves act as natural barriers, slowing down the flow of land ice into the ocean and thereby limiting sea level rise.
Experts warn that if high greenhouse gas emissions continue and global temperatures increase by 12 degrees Celsius by 2300, oceans will warm up significantly. This will cause ice shelves to melt from below, ultimately leading to their collapse and accelerating sea level rise.
Lead author Clara Burgard, from France’s National Scientific Research Centre, CNRS, and Université Grenoble Alpes, emphasised the urgent link between protecting Antarctica and climate policy.
The fate of the ice shelves is directly tied to efforts made now to reduce emissions, she said, adding: “The future of Antarctica literally lies in our hands.”
The study projected that 26 of Antarctica’s 64 major ice shelves could vanish by 2150 under a high-emissions pathway, corresponding to a world that is 8 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels. By 2300, this would result in the loss of 38 ice shelves.
Under a more optimistic scenario, where global emissions fall rapidly and temperature increases are capped below two degrees Celsius, only one ice shelf would be lost.
