European Commission President von der Leyen issued a brief statement on Sunday saying that Ukraine has been at the heart of many discussions over the past days. Delegations from the US, Ukraine, and its European allies have reportedly started discussions in Geneva.
She referred to the Foreign Affairs Council (20 November) and the Leaders Statement in Johannesburg on (22 November). “Any credible and sustainable peace plan should first and foremost stop the killing and end the war, while not sowing the seeds for a future conflict,” she stated. “We have agreed on the main elements necessary for a just and lasting peace and Ukraine’s sovereignty.”
The Leaders statement was adopted by von der Leyen, Costa and the leaders of several EU Member States (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Finland, The Netherlands, Ireland and Poland) and non-EU countries (UK, Norway, Canada and Japan). They welcomed the continued US efforts to bring peace to Ukraine.
According to the statement, the initial draft of the US President 28-point plan last week “includes important elements that will be essential for a just and lasting peace.” The leaders “believe therefore that the draft is a basis which will require additional work. We are ready to engage in order to ensure that a future peace is sustainable.”
In fact, several points in the plan are one-sided to Russia’s favour and neither Ukraine nor the EU were consulted on them. Ukraine will have to agree to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO and NATO will agree not to station troops in Ukraine. The regions occupied by Russia - Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk - will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the US.
The plan repeats Kremlin’s narrative, requiring that “All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited”. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel. Contrary to Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, where the ceasefire entered into force immediately, the ceasefire in Ukraine will take effect once all parties agree to the plan and begin implementing the points.
The Leaders distanced themselves from some of the points. “We are clear on the principle that borders must not be changed by force. We are also concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine's armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack. Implementation of elements relating to the EU and to NATO would need the consent of EU and NATO members respectively.
On a positive point, Russia seems to have retracted from its opposition against Ukraine’s EU Membership. According to the plan, “Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.”
Ukraine is progressing in the accession process, according to the recent Enlargement Package. Since the accession negotiations were opened in December 2023, and despite the on-going war against Russia’s aggression, Ukraine is one of the frontrunners. It has met the conditions to open three clusters, including the fundamentals cluster. The Commission expects it to meet the conditions for opening the remaining three clusters.
The Ukrainian government has signalled its objective to provisionally close accession negotiations by the end of 2028. To meet this ambitious objective, which the Commission supports, an acceleration of the pace of reforms is required. But first the fundamentals cluster must be opened, something which all EU Member States besides Hungary supports.
Media reported last week about corruption in Ukraine’s energy sector involving government ministers and advisers. A Commission spokesperson told The Brussels Times that Ukraine has the capacity to fight corruption – a key condition for joining the EU. The Commission’s position on opening the Fundamentals cluster has not changed and it should happen as soon as possible, the spokesperson added.
