Wage growth agreed through collective bargaining in the euro area is expected to decrease in 2026, with tracker data showing more moderate increases compared with the previous year.
Collectively negotiated wage growth — including smoothed one-off payments such as bonuses and compensation for inflation — is projected at 3.2% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, covering nearly half of workers in the participating countries for 2025 and just under a third for 2026, according to the wage tracker of the European Central Bank (ECB).
When one-off payments are not averaged over time, the annual increases stand at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
The figures are based on existing collective bargaining agreements in nine euro area countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.
The ECB’s wage tracker provides a forward-looking view of wage growth based on current agreements rather than forecasts, and its indicators may be revised as new deals are signed.
Outlook for 2026 shows less wage growth and stable trends
Quarterly data from the tracker suggest that wage growth in 2026 will gradually rise throughout the year, moving from 2.0% in the first quarter to 2.7% in the final quarter.
This pattern reflects the fading impact of high one-off payments made in earlier years, the ECB said.
Excluding all one-off payments, the negotiated wage growth is projected to ease from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.
The ECB noted that the dispersion — or variation — of wage increases across different euro area countries is expected to be lower in 2026 than in previous years. This means wage growth pressures are becoming more similar across the bloc.
The wage tracker relies on data covering agreements from nearly 50% of employees in 2025, but the coverage drops to around 29% in 2026.
The figures are subject to revision as more agreements are signed or updated, particularly in the early part of each year, the ECB highlighted in its summary.
The ECB has recently expanded its wage tracker’s coverage to include collective agreements in Finland dating back to 2015.
