Euro area consumers kept their inflation expectations steady in November, while their outlook on economic growth and home prices became more pessimistic.
Inflation expectations for the next year remained unchanged at 2.8 percent, and perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months stayed at 3.1 percent for the tenth month in a row, show new consumer expectations survey data from the European Central Bank (ECB) released on Thursday.
Expectations for inflation three years ahead (2.5 percent) and five years ahead (2.2 percent) also did not shift. The ECB noted that uncertainty about future inflation remained unchanged.
Among income groups, respondents with lower incomes reported slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than higher earners, continuing a trend seen since 2023.
Younger respondents, aged 18-34, continued to report lower inflation expectations than older age groups.
Spending outlook drops, economic growth concern rises
Consumers’ expectations for their nominal income growth over the next year stayed at 1.2 percent.
Their perceived spending over the previous year rose marginally to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent in October, while expected spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.4 percent, down 0.1 percentage points.
Sentiment regarding economic growth became more pessimistic, with expectations for the next year declining to -1.3 percent in November from -1.1 percent previously.
Expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased to 10.9 percent, and these outlooks remained higher among lower-income households, the ECB said.
Outlooks for home price growth over the next 12 months fell slightly to 3.4 percent in November, compared with 3.5 percent in October.
Expectations for mortgage interest rates a year ahead dropped to 4.6 percent, down from 4.7 percent. Lower-income households forecast the highest rates (5.3 percent), while higher-income households expected the lowest (4.1 percent).
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online poll of around 19,000 adults from 11 euro area countries, designed to track perceptions on inflation, economic conditions, and household finance.
The next set of results will be published on 30 January 2026.
