Negotiated wage growth across the euro area is expected to settle at about 2.6% by the end of 2026.
The European Central Bank’s wage tracker — which draws on active collective bargaining agreements in nine euro area countries — shows negotiated wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 when one-off payments such as bonuses are spread over 12 months, and 2.3% in 2026, based on data covering 50.7% of employees in participating countries in 2025 and 39.7% in 2026, the ECB announced on Monday.
Using a measure that does not smooth one-off payments, negotiated wage growth is indicated at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, it added.
A third measure excluding one-off payments — intended to reflect more permanent wage increases — shows negotiated wage growth easing from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.
How the 2026 wage picture is changing over the year
On the headline measure that smooths one-off payments, the wage tracker averages 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026 and rises to 2.6% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest update.
The ECB said the increase over the year mainly reflects statistical effects linked to the treatment of earlier one-off payments rather than new wage pressures.
Compared with the previous update in February, the wage tracker for 2026 was revised down by 0.1 percentage points on both the smoothed and unsmoothed measures.
The ECB said the tracker’s forward-looking horizon remains set to December 2026, with an extension to the first quarter of 2027 planned for the July 2026 update.
