Europe’s population has reached its peak at 450.6 million people and is projected to fall to about 445 million by 2050 and 398.8 million by 2100, according to new figures from the European Commission.
The Commission said on Tuesday its third report on demographic transformation in the EU found the bloc’s population is expected to shrink by about 11.7% overall by 2100, returning to a level last seen in the 1970s.
At the same time, life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024, reflecting changes in healthcare, living standards and social conditions.
By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents is expected to be aged 65 or older, compared with one in five today.
By 2100, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men, the Commission said.
A child born in the EU in 2023 could expect to live without major illness until 75.3 years, according to the report, which was produced by the Commission’s Joint Research Centre.
Workforce pressures and rising care needs
About 20% of working-age people are outside the labour market, while the gender gap in employment stands at 10%, the Commission said.
It also reported that around 8 million young people are not in education, employment or training, often shortened to NEET.
The report said the shift towards an older population will increase demand for healthcare and long-term care, with the number of people needing support expected to rise from 36 million to 48 million by 2070.
It added that the share of people aged 80 and over is projected to double.
Skilled migration is already playing an important role in addressing labour shortages in the EU, the Commission stated, while adding that upskilling and reskilling people already in the bloc should remain the priority.
“Europe’s population is changing, and Europe’s policies must change with it,” Commissioner Dubravka Šuica said. “We are living longer, healthier lives than ever before – one of our greatest achievements.”
