The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has published a study looking at how the EU could strengthen its ability to withstand and respond to disasters by 2040.
The report, titled "Strengthening the European Union’s Future Disaster Resilience," examines how climate-related hazards, security threats and structural weaknesses could combine in ways that overwhelm current preparedness systems, the Commission announced on Tuesday.
It uses a “strategic foresight” approach — a method of exploring plausible future risks and needs — to identify capabilities and emerging technologies it says will matter most for disaster and infrastructure resilience across Europe.
The study sets out 12 “priority capabilities”, including early warning and detection, cyber resilience, cross-border cooperation, continuity of essential services and citizen empowerment.
It also lists 12 emerging technologies, including advanced sensing systems, AI-enabled autonomous tools and “digital twins” — digital models of real-world systems.
Focus on capabilities, not single hazards
Maintaining essential services was identified as the top priority for 2040, while workshop participants emphasised action before disasters occur — including anticipation, prevention, protection and preparedness — the report said.
The study argues that a “capability-based approach” is the best way to deal with increasingly complex and interconnected risks, and calls for a shared capability language for European civil security to support planning, investment and research.
It says technology delivers the greatest value when integrated into practical systems that work together, supported by EU-wide standards for equipment and operations.
Among the technologies assessed, the report highlights combined solutions such as integrated sensing systems, AI-assisted drone detection, 3D mapping and localisation, and city-scale digital twins as having the greatest potential.
Expert assessments in the study also warn that technologies that are not interoperable, not trusted or not suited to operational needs are unlikely to deliver, and say investment decisions should consider how “dual-use” risks — where tools can be used for civilian and military purposes — are governed, particularly for artificial intelligence.
