The casualties on both sides following the surprise attack of Hamas on Saturday morning against southern Israel have increased dramatically since the full scale of its massacres of Israeli civilians have been known.
By Tuesday evening, the Israeli authorities reported that the terrorist attack had claimed the lives of more than 1,200 Israelis, thereof 85 % civilians, and left more than 2,700 wounded. The civilians were hunted down by the terrorists and indiscriminately killed in what was the worst massacre in Israel’s history. Shocking videos filmed by the terrorists brings to mind the Holocaust.
More than 100 Israelis, including women, children and elderly, were taken hostages and brought to Gaza where Hamas intends to use them in a prisoner exchange. A Hamas spokesperson has threatened to execute them unless Israel stops the air strikes against the Gaza Strip.
What on the first day was thought to be a minor group of Hamas gunmen that managed to infiltrate Israeli towns and villages close to the border fence is now estimated to a much higher figure. The bodies of over 1,500 Hamas gunmen have been found on the Israeli side of the fence after Israeli troops in a delay of several hours were sent to the south to restore the security to the communities that were attacked.
On the Palestinian side in Gaza, the casualties are currently estimated at 560 dead and 2,900 injured, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, following the massive Israeli air strikes in response to Hamas’ attack. A UN source estimated the number of displaced Palestinians to 260,000, and is expected to increase further.
Nearly 140,000 of them are sheltering in 83 UNRWA schools in all areas of the Gaza Strip, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees reported on Tuesday.
Humanitarian corridors
Media have reported about opening “humanitarian corridors” to evacuate civilians from the Gaza Strip but the only available border crossing is in the south to Egypt. As regards the Israeli hostages, their release in exchange for Palestinians prisoners held by Israel would require talks with Hamas, at least indirectly via mediators from other countries.
In the past such prisoner swaps have taken place and led to cease-fires that were never sustainable. After Hamas’ shocking surprise attack, Israel faces a dilemma where saving the hostages has been described as a “minor concern” at this stage of the war.
For the first time in the recurrent rounds of hostilities, Israel declared a state of war with the goal to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure and capacity so that it never again will pose a threat. This would probably require a ground offensive into Gaza, something which Israel in the past has avoided. It could take weeks and months if the goal is also to take control of Gaza and put an end to Hamas’ rule.
For the time being, Israel has the international support and legitimacy to defend itself in response to Hamas’ attack, which has been widely condemned by most countries besides Russia and China, and has drawn parallels with the terrorism of Daesh or the Islamic State. But the support can easily evaporate if the war drags on with increasing numbers of civilian casualties in the besieged Gaza Strip.
Hezbollah and Iran
Hamas has until now been seen as ‘freedom fighters’ for the Palestinian cause. With its attack, it also intended to spark a multi-front war in the region in some coordination with Hezbollah in Lebanon, possibly encouraged to do so by Iran. Hezbollah has a much bigger arsenal of long-range rockets than Hamas which could hit all Israel.
In case of such a scenario, Israel says that it is much more prepared than in the previous war in 2006 and has already mobilized 300,000 soldiers in the record time of 48 hours. It could deter Hezbollah to interfere in the war on the side of Hamas, especially since the outcome would be a disaster for Lebanon and jeopardise Hezbollah’s political and military power in the country.
“A second combat front opened by Hezbollah in the north, in parallel with the war against Hamas, will create additional challenges for Israel and change the face of the war and its results,” commented Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
EU ministers of Foreign Affairs held an informal videoconference on Tuesday during which they discussed the situation in Israel and in the region following the attack by Hamas.
They condemned the attack and reiterated Israel’s “right to self defence, in full respect of international humanitarian law”. The ministers called for the protection of civilians and restraint, the release of hostages, for allowing access to food, water and medicines to Gaza in line with international humanitarian law, and opening humanitarian corridors.
They clearly have in mind a quick cessation of the war before it spirals out of control and leads to further escalation, stressing the importance of preparing the aftermath of the attacks and strengthening the cooperation with regional and international players with a view to “reviving the Middle East Peace Process”.
“The international community has to use this critical moment – this could be an awakening moment – in order to re-engage with the problem of Palestine and Israel,“ said High Representative Josep Borrell, EU’s foreign policy chief.
“We made a clear distinction between Hamas, the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority. We consider Hamas a terrorist organisation but the Palestinian authority is another thing, the Palestinian authority is our partner,” he commented. “We do not deal with Hamas but, yes, we support, we deal and we work together with the Palestinian authority.”
While some EU member states are considering freezing financial aid to Gaza, which might have been diverted by Hamas for its military build-up, an overwhelming majority of ministers stated that the cooperation with the Palestinian Authority should continue and EU funds should not be discontinued.
The ministers agreed that that the EU will continue its engagement with all parties and maintain its financial and political support for the region. It will also make sure that “its long-term commitment to a political solution based on two states survives these tragic events.”
Professor Kobi Michael at INSS, editor in chief of its strategic assessments and an expert on Gaza and Israel’s multi-front challenges, has described Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel as the result of a colossal failure on all levels, politically, operationally and above all from the point of view of intelligence gathering and interpretation.
The Hamas attack is means also a failure of the paradigm of restraint, containment, and addiction to calm, which has accompanied Israel since 2009. Israel thought that it could buy calm by cash flows to Hamas from Qatar and granting work permits to workers from Gaza.
Could an investigation damage the morale in Israel? “It’s not possible to carry out a full investigation during the war because it requires the establishment of a public committee of inquiry,” he told The Brussels Times. “But surely preliminary lessons about what went wrong can already be learned,” he added.
Media have already reported how Hamas found the right timing to launch a well-prepared attack by exploiting weaknesses in the border fence that took Israel by complete surprise.
What does it mean to the Israeli declaration of a state of war - are the laws of war not the same? “A war declaration is important for a several reasons, including from a legal point of view, because Israel finds itself in a new situation.”
He claims that it gives Israel more freedom of operation and less restrictions in dealing with Hamas. “Israel is not obliged to issue warnings before carrying out air strikes that could cause collateral damage.”
Will the international community give Israel enough time for a ground offence or start to put pressure on Israel to end the hostilities and agree to a cease-fire? “Israel should resist the pressure,” he replied. As regards the Israeli home front, he thinks that it is capable of resilience and of enduring a long war.
Who will take over the Gaza Strip after Israel has taken control of it? Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas might be irrelevant. “It could still be the Palestinian Authority but I’m not sure that it’s possible. Anyway, it’s not the issue right now.”
Can the Israeli public trust a government, which is responsible for arguably the biggest debacle in the country’s history, to wage the war against Hamas? “It’s a difficult question and that’s why I hope that a national unity government will be established as soon as possible.”
M. Apelblat
The Brussels Times
