Geert Wilders' anti-Islam PVV leads polls, but coalition maths likely to keep him from power
The Netherlands heads to the polls on Wednesday for a snap general election seen as a test of the far right's strength as it continues to rise across Europe.
Geert Wilders, a vocal critic of immigration and Islam, is leading in opinion polls and could replicate his party’s stunning 2023 success. His Party for Freedom (PVV), a far-right movement, is currently polling first.
However, three other parties have closed the gap in recent days. "It's impossible to predict who will win, as four parties are now tied for first place," said Sarah de Lange, professor of political science at Leiden University, to AFP, adding that "more than 50% of Dutch voters remain undecided."
Shut out of coalitions
One thing seems almost certain: Mr Wilders will not become prime minister, regardless of the result. He triggered the election by collapsing the outgoing coalition government after a dispute over immigration.
Most mainstream parties have ruled out joining forces with him, citing his unreliability or hardline positions.
The Dutch political system is so fragmented that no single party can reach the 76-seat majority needed to govern alone, making consensus and coalition-building essential.
Immigration at the heart of the vote
"The future of our nation is at stake," Wilders told AFP ahead of the vote. "Like everywhere in Europe, people are fed up with mass immigration and cultural change," he said.
The result will be viewed as a barometer for far-right momentum in Europe, where similar movements are gaining ground in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
The campaign has centred on immigration and the housing crisis, particularly affecting young people in the densely populated country.
Four possible prime ministers
With Wilders unlikely to form a government, whoever finishes second could well become prime minister.
Currently, polls put former European Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans of the Green/Labour alliance in that position. "The Netherlands is one of the richest countries in the world, yet we’ve lost confidence in ourselves,” said the 64-year-old former foreign minister. "We need to restore that trust."
Centrist Christian Democrat Henri Bontenbal, 42, is running as a candidate of stability, while 38-year-old Rob Jetten of the liberal D66 party has surged in recent polls with a strong media presence.
The campaign has been marred by violence during anti-immigration protests and by the spread of misinformation.
