In case of a hard Brexit, Belgium’s annual export losses will amount to some €3.2 billion, credit insurer Euler Hermes revealed in a study on Monday.
If the European Union and the United Kingdom reach a last-minute agreement, however, Belgium’s losses will be limited to almost €1.6 billion.
The chances of a hard Brexit have increased sharply, according to Euler Hermes, which now evaluates them at 45%. According to its latest calculations, failing to reach an agreement could lead to €33 billion in export losses each year for EU countries.
Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium would be the hardest-hit countries.
The sectors most affected in Belgium are transport (in the case of hard Brexit: export losses of €969 million), chemicals (€409 million), plastics (€284 million), mineral products (€216 million) and textiles (€207 million).
According to Euler Hermes, the United Kingdom could also face negative GDP growth of 5% in 2021, a 15% drop in exports and inflation of more than 5% for at least six months, after an already dramatic year in 2020 (around -11% of GDP).
However, given the social, political and economic consequences of a hard Brexit in addition to the coronavirus crisis, Euler Hermes still expects a last-minute agreement.
The Brussels Times