For determining the level of threats, the Belgian Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis estimates two factors According to a document obtained by Libre Belgique, the newspaper reported on Thursday (18 August) that Organe de Coordination et d’Analyse de la Menace (OCAM) analyses plausibility (from 2 to 6) and severity (from 1 to 5) of threats against persons, events or interests. The scores are added, and the result, ranging from 3 to 11, corresponds to the actual level of the threat. The same method is applied for evaluating the general level of threat in Belgium.
Regarding threats from persons, the same procedure is followed with matrixes which evaluate the capacity and intent of individuals, for obtaining a score between 2 and 8 which corresponds to one of the four levels of threat.
The mathematical model is completed by expert comments. The level remains flexible, and may vary during a single event.