Many of us have seen it at our local gas station: Once again, the global energy system is in crisis. The pattern? Usually quite similar: rising geopolitical tensions, constrained supply routes and sudden surges in energy prices.
This is now the case in the Strait of Hormuz.
Following Iran’s move to close the Strait, oil tankers are lining up at one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. A regional escalation quickly turned into a global political, economic and environmental risk.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) responded by announcing the release of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. Despite this coordinated intervention, the scale of dependence on this passage is overwhelming. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day are moved through the Strait of Hormuz – enough to keep about 50 million cars on the road for a month.
At sea, the situation is even more uncertain. Tankers carrying oil are trapped and vulnerable to attacks, risking the possibility of a disastrous oil spill in the Gulf.
We are experiencing a system-wide strain affecting energy, food and the trade economy simultaneously.
Wake-up call for action
Unfortunately, the current oil shock is not being widely treated as the wake-up call it should be. Many of the responses are reactionary, aimed at alleviating the immediate pains on oil supply, rather than rethinking why we are in this crisis altogether. A blockage of major energy and food supply chains in a vulnerable corridor is not necessarily an accident, but the result of the current fossil fuel-dependent energy system.
Again, this is not a new pattern. From previous oil and food shocks in history to the recent disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are reminded over and over again of the fragility of fossil fuel dependence. Each time, countries respond with short-term measures: diversify energy suppliers, secure infrastructures and tap into oil reserves.
The current crisis is no different; EU officials stress the need to keep shipping routes open, oil flowing and prices down. They call for targeted measures “where necessary”. In other words, let’s do what we can to keep the old system running. While all may be necessary responses, they remain superficial fixes to a problem that locks us in a cycle of recurring crises, much like putting a bandage on a bullet wound.
Meanwhile, the climate crisis is showing us that there is an urgent need to move away from fossil fuels – with consequences if we don't. How do we address the underlying issue of fossil fuel dependence?
The latest Interconnected Disaster Risks report highlights the tendency toward short-term decision-making that prioritizes immediate stability and benefits. Societies respond to sudden risks without addressing the assumptions and structures that create them. As countries continue to rely on fossil fuels, the risks and vulnerabilities to conflicts and disasters remain.
Pathway to renewables
Investment in renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, is the clearest pathway forward. These technologies offer a model of an energy system that is more localized, more distributed, and much less dependent on geopolitical conflicts. Renewables are also becoming the most cost-effective source for power generation, as 91% of new projects, such as wind and solar installations, are cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.
Beyond their environmental benefits, renewables are also essential to energy security. More renewable-based power production reduces reliance on imported fuels and the risks associated with their transport. Unlike oil and gas, which rely on continuous global supply chains, renewable energy can be generated domestically and integrated into stronger, more resilient grids.
Electricity demand alone is expected to grow by around 3.5% annually through the end of the decade – renewables are essential to meeting the need. Scaling them will take time, but they have pushed against the odds.
We need to look beyond immediate fixes and short-term trade-offs. Time is certainly not a luxury either, as the world is on track to exceed the 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement, which could trigger irreversible environmental tipping points. With only a limited window to prepare for increasingly worse impacts, each crisis takes valuable time away from strengthening our long-term climate resilience.
Just a few months from now, the UN Climate Conference COP 31 is set to take place in Türkiye, in a region directly affected by these tensions.
Such proximity offers a striking dichotomy, but there is an opportunity to confront the fundamental issue: do we want to keep rebuilding the same vulnerable system, crisis after crisis? Or are we finally willing to let go and not only phase out fossil fuels but also embrace the change that could solve several of humanity’s big crises simultaneously?
What we do know is that time is not on our side.
