On 9 June, just over 4.9 million voters in Flanders will determine who will be their representatives in the regional parliament, and how at least 87 of the 150 seats in the Chamber will be allocated.
Whatever the result, there will be significant changes in the Flemish Parliament after the polls. More than 50 of the 124 members of the outgoing parliament will not return to the regional legislature, either because they are not seeking re-election or because they are vying for posts at the national or European level.
The outgoing legislature began with 67 “newcomers,” and there is a good chance there will be an even higher number on 2 July, when the new legislature opens.
High-profile duels in the offing
Those leaving the Flemish Parliament include Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA) leader Bart De Wever and Groen party’s Meyrem Almaci, both of whom will be seeking election at the federal level, as well as Bruno Tobback of Vooruit (Socialists), who will be running for a seat in the European Parliament.
While the south of the country is split into 11 constituencies for the Walloon parliamentary elections, the system is simpler in the north: each province is a constituency.
The 124-member Flemish Parliament includes six legislators elected in the capital, Brussels.
The elections promise some high-profile duels, both for the regional parliament and for the Chamber of Deputies.
Antwerp: N-VA is strong but VB is on the rise
In Antwerp, Mayor Bart De Wever is strong, but the question on many lips is: will he be able to use his popularity to counter the rise of the extreme-right Vlaams Belang (VB)?
The province attracts a great deal of attention at every election, not only because it is the biggest purveyor of seats (24 in the Chamber, 33 in the Flemish Parliament) but also because it has often been a reliable barometer of major political trends.
In 2019, with over 30% of the votes (31.2% of the vote for the Chamber, 31.8% for the Flemish Parliament), the Flemish nationalist N-VA had a clear lead over its nearest rival, VB (18%).
PTB leader popular in the 18-23 age group
This time around, VB Chairman Tom Van Grieken has chosen to run at the regional level, where he will come up against Tom Ongena, head of the Open Vld (Liberal) party, and Flemish Minister-President Jan Jambon (N-VA).
Federal Minister for Development Cooperation Caroline Gennez is leading the Socialist list, and Parti du Travail Belge (PTB) leader Jos D'Haese heads the radical left list. D'Haese, 31, is most popular among people in the 18-23 age bracket in Flanders, according to a survey conducted in early April by the HLN and VTM media.
Groen and the Christen Democratisch en Vlaams (CD&V) party have put forward candidates with parliamentary experience, but with lower profiles: Kim Buyst for the environmentalists, and Katrien Schryvers for the Christian Democrats.
Newcomers at the federal level
For the federal polls, the ballot will be a real test for two ministers who have never faced such a challenge at that level: Annelies Verlinden (CD&V), a lawyer catapulted into the Interior Ministry by CD&V leader Joachim Coens in 2020, and Paul Van Tigchelt (Open Vld), an ex-magistrate and former right-hand man of Vincent Van Quickenborne, whom he succeeded as Minister of Justice in October 2023.
Bart De Wever will head the N-VA list, while former Groen party president Meyrem Almaci will try to make the environmentalists' voice heard. The PTB list will be headed by former party leader, Peter Mertens.
Vooruit is counting on Antwerp alderman Jinnih Beels, a former police commissioner. These are her first steps at the federal level, a rather tough casting for a novice.
Limburg: Not much weight in terms of seats
In Limburg, list heads include regional Tourism and Environment Minister Zuhal Demir, (N-VA), Agriculture Minister Jo Brouns (CD&V), Chris Janssens (Vlaams Belang) and Public Works Minister Lydia Peeters (Open Vld). Demir and Brouns had a good-natured spat over nitrogen emissions during the legislature, before finding common ground at the end of 2023. The duel will likely continue at a distance via the ballot box.
Limburg doesn't carry much weight in terms of seats: 12 in the Chamber, 16 in the Region. In 2019, the N-VA gained more than 22% at both levels in the former mining province known for its orchards and gentle way of life, but which is also the least prosperous Flemish province in terms of average per capita income. It was followed by Vlaams Belang and CD&V.
The PTB has put Gaby Colebunders, born in Genk and currently a member of parliament for Liège, at the head of its list for the Flemish elections.
Flemish Brabant: No shortage of heavyweights here
In Flemish Brabant, there's no shortage of high profiles either. N-VA parliamentarian Theo Francken, a former Secretary of State for Asylum and Migration, is running for a federal seat. In 2019, he dominated the constituency head and shoulders with over 122,500 preferential votes, while rivals Koen Geens and Maggie De Block garnered around 40,000.
At the time, however, he was riding the wave of his participation in the government, even though the N-VA had pulled out before the polls.
In this province encircling Brussels, the N-VA had been overwhelming in the previous election (28% of the vote for the Chamber), with the Open Vld a respectable second. Facing Francken this time around will be CD&V head Sammy Mahdi, the lesser-known Lennik Mayor Irina De Knop (Open Vld), and Frank Vandenbroucke for the Socialists, while Vlaams Belang has a new face in Britt Huybrechts.
For the regional elections, there are many regulars in prominent positions, such as N-VA’s Ben Weyts, who has been very much in the media spotlight as Flemish Minister of Education, Gwendolyn Rutten (Open Vld), Klaas Slootmans (Vlaams Belang) and Peter Van Rompuy (Open Vld).
East Flanders: Local VB chapter gunning for an outright majority
East Flanders is the province of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, but also that of CD&V Secretary of State Nicole de Moor, former Vooruit chairman Conner Rousseau, who is attempting a comeback after a few months' silence, and Vlaams Belang’s Guy D'Haeseleer.
If one man can embody the local success of the far-right party, it is D'Haeseleer. He and his local VB chapter, known as Forza Ninove, won 40% of the votes in the 2018 municipal elections, and are aiming for an absolute majority of seats in the next local ballot. D'Haeseleer also had more than 56,000 preferential votes in the 2019 Flemish parliamentary elections, well ahead of N-VA list leader Matthias Diependaele.
The two men are once again list headers for the regional election, alongside de Moor (CD&V), Senate President Stephanie D'Hose (Open Vld), and Freya Van den Bossche (Vooruit).
In East Flanders, N-VA (21.8%) was trailed by Vlaams Belang (20%) in 2019 at the federal level, ahead of Open Vld (17.9%). For this trio, the list leaders have not changed: Anneleen Van Bossuyt (N-VA), Barbara Pas (VB) and Alexander De Croo (Open Vld).
Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem (CD&V) and Civil Service Minister Petra De Sutter (Groen) also feature, while the Socialists continue to place their trust in Joris Vandenbroucke.
West Flanders: Sole Flemish province not won by N-VA
The coastal province is a historic stronghold of the Christian Democrats. It was the only Flemish province where the N-VA did not win it all in 2019. The CD&V was first for the Flemish Parliament, with 23.5% of the votes, even though the result in terms of seats (5) was the same as that of Vlaams Belang and the N-VA.
The primacy of the CD&V seems very much in doubt this time. Vlaams Belang, which has been in opposition since the start of the campaign, is seeking to capitalise on rural discontent over a nitrogen agreement and a high-voltage line.
For the regional election, former Flemish Vice Minister-President Hilde Crevits is in a commanding position, as she was five years ago when she garnered almost 131,000 preferential votes.
Tighter struggle for the election to the Chamber
Things appear more complicated at the federal level, where the head of the 2019 list, Hendrik Bogaert, has decided to set up his own party. The task of seducing the electorate therefore rests on the shoulders of Nathalie Muylle, Minister of the Economy in 2019-2020.
While Vlaams Belang has no 'star' in the province, the N-VA has a heavyweight in Jean-Marie Dedecker, who is on the list as an independent. The right-wing ex-judoka had been courted by both N-VA and Vlaams Belang.
His position as head of the federal list pushes Sander Loones, a member of the Chamber of Deputies, back to the Region.
At the federal level, the Socialists have their young president Melissa Depraetere, and the Liberals have ex-minister Vincent Van Quickenborne.
