The risks associated with armed conflicts and economic tensions are at the top of the business world's immediate concerns, according to a report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) published on Wednesday, a few days before its annual meeting. to be held in Davos from 20 to 24 January.
‘We are unfortunately experiencing a record number of conflicts in the world," WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek told a press conference, citing Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as “humanitarian emergencies” in Sudan, Somalia and Gaza.
"Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape" Mr. Dusek added. "In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities."
Nearly a quarter of the respondents to the WEF survey of 11,000 business leaders in 121 countries put this risk in first place among the dangers in two years' time, up from fifth place in 2024.
According to Mr Dusek, this is "linked to the general feeling of a very complicated geo-economic environment," with fears of "geo-economic confrontations" coming in third place among the risks cited for this year.
"The rise of protectionism and the increase in trade disputes are leading to a significant increase in customs duties and barriers to world trade," especially as many countries are trying to secure their resources in raw materials that are critical to their technological innovations or their energy transition, Carolina Klint of risk management specialists Marsh McLennan pointed out.
Ms Klint warned that these new trade barriers would further disrupt supply chains, increasing costs and delays’ and potentially contributing to renewed inflation.
The number of ‘new harmful policy interventions’ has risen from 600 in 2017 to more than 3,000 a year by 2022, the WEF estimated on Wednesday, citing figures from Global Trade Alert, an organisation that assesses trade policies around the world.
Moreover,US President-elect Donald Trump, who is due to speak by videoconference in Davos on 23 January, has threatened to impose heavy customs duties on products arriving on US soil.
Extreme weather events were also widely cited by respondents, coming in second among immediate risks and even in first place over a ten-year horizon, at a time when historic fires are devastating parts of Los Angeles against a backdrop of worsening climate disruption.
As in 2024, misinformation is also one of the major risks cited by participants, ranking fourth among immediate risks and topping the list of concerns over a two-year horizon.
