Global coal consumption will reach a new record in 2025, but will then stabilise and even decline slightly by 2030, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global demand for coal will rise slightly to 8.85 billion tonnes by the end of 2025 – representing an increase of around 0.5% compared to 2024, which was already a record year.
After the peak in 2024, which was also the warmest year on record, 2025 is heading for a "new historical record" for coal consumption, explains Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA's Energy Markets and Security Division.
However, demand has stabilised, and the IEA expects a slight decline in consumption by 2030, expecting the levels to go back to those of 2023 due to "increasing competition from other sources of electricity."
"With the strong growth of renewable energy sources, the steady expansion of nuclear energy and the arrival of a huge wave of liquefied natural gas on the market," electricity production from coal is "likely to decline from 2026 onwards."
Stabilising and declining
At the same time, demand for coal for industrial processes will remain more stable.
In China, the largest consumer of coal and a major player in the market, consumption in 2025 remained generally stable compared to 2024.
Other major markets are seeing different trends. For example, demand for coal in India, another major consumer, fell for the third time in 50 years. In the United States, on the other hand, rising gas prices and policies to delay the closure of coal-fired power plants have boosted consumption, which had been declining for 15 years.
In the European Union, demand for coal fell by 3%, compared with an 18% decline between 2023 and 2024. The smaller decline could be explained by low hydro and wind energy production in the first half of the year.
