The 1.5°C temperature increase limit is likely to be surpassed within the coming years, but this does not mean that the long-term goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century is lost, according to a new report from the UN environment programme UNEP, published on Wednesday.
Immediate action is required to achieve this, both in terms of reducing emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Only by keeping the so-called "overshoot"' as brief and as low as possible can the consequences be somewhat contained.
In the best-case scenario, the peak could be limited to 1.8°C, but according to other scenarios, we could see warming exceeding 2°C.
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That peak is significant because every fraction of a degree of warming is associated with more severe impacts and a higher risk of potential tipping points, which could trigger an unpredictable cascade of consequences. The duration of the overshoot also plays an important role.
To keep warming as low and as brief as possible, rapid action must be taken to phase out fossil fuels and to better protect natural carbon sinks such as forests and oceans.
Only by achieving net-zero emissions and implementing large-scale carbon removal can the temperature curve be brought back down by the end of the century, making the 1.5°C long-term target viable.
At the same time, efforts must be directed towards adaptation, as the impacts of climate change are already being felt acutely. The UNEP also notes that there are limits to how much society can adapt to a warming climate.
Even if warming is reduced to 1.5°C by the end of the century, unavoidable damage will still occur that cannot be repaired.
