The current El Niño is expected to strengthen further, peak at the end of 2026 and last until February 2027, increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization warned on Thursday.
The WMO said the event could deal a heavy blow to people and economies around the world.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, one of the planet’s most powerful natural climate patterns. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
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It usually develops every two to seven years and lasts for around nine to 12 months. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of major shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns across many parts of the world.
According to the WMO’s latest forecasts, there is an almost 100% chance that the current El Niño, which became firmly established in mid-August 2026, will continue until February 2027.
Driven by exceptionally high ocean temperatures, the phenomenon is expected to intensify over the next few months and reach very strong levels before peaking towards the end of 2026.
Its climate effects are then expected to continue through much of 2027.
“In Spanish, El Niño means ‘little boy’, but this episode has the potential to deal a heavy blow to populations and economies around the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“We are already seeing the disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these effects to worsen as El Niño intensifies,” she added.
