War between Iran and the United States has caused about $200 billion (€157 billion) in damage across Gulf countries, according to an Allianz Trade report published on Wednesday.
The total economic cost of the war is projected to rise to $790 billion by 2030, the report added.
It recalled that after the United States and Israel launched strikes in late February, Tehran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking neighbouring states allied with Washington, particularly in the Gulf.
US bases in the region and civilian infrastructure were damaged, with the situation worsening in July when Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis entered the war.
Allianz Trade estimates physical damage across the region at just over $200 billion, especially in energy infrastructure, with losses concentrated in economies heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 80 energy facilities were hit during the conflict, mainly in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Around one-third of them were said to have been severely damaged.
The report covers the six Member States of the Gulf Cooperation Council: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
It says the war has also affected tourism and property, two sectors expected to grow more slowly over the coming years.
According to Allianz Trade, the overall cost to Gulf economies is likely to reach $790 billion, equivalent to a cumulative shortfall of 5.9% of GDP against the pre-war trend by 2030.
The figure represents lost economic output between 2026 and 2030, measuring the gap between what the region would have produced before the war and what it is now expected to produce.
To absorb these losses, Gulf states are expected to increase domestic spending as government priorities shift away from megaprojects and towards resilience and security, the report says. It also warns that public debt in the region is set to rise sharply.
Spending on infrastructure and defence is forecast to reach between $380 billion and $400 billion by 2030.
The IMF expects the economy of Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, to contract by 3.3%, five percentage points below its July forecast.
Despite the war and restricted access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait because of Houthi attacks, Saudi oil giant Aramco said in early November that its third-quarter net profit rose by 34.6%.
