A new study from the University of Antwerp has upended one of the Arizona government’s flagship promises: to ensure that anyone who works earns at least €500 more net per month than someone who is unemployed.
According to the research, that gap already exists — and for most Belgians, it is far larger than the government’s target.
A promise already fulfilled
The federal government led by Prime Minister Bart De Wever has made “making work pay” one of its key economic mantras. Both De Wever and Reformist Movement (MR) leader Georges-Louis Bouchez have repeatedly promised a fiscal reform that would guarantee at least €500 net per month more for workers than for those on unemployment or integration income.
But the study by the Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy at the University of Antwerp - reported by De Standaard - suggests that reality has already caught up with that ambition. According to the researchers, 94.5% of unemployed people in Belgium would already earn at least €500 more net per month by taking a full-time job, even at minimum wage (around €2,070 gross).
“Nine out of 10 unemployed Belgians would already earn more than €500 extra a month by working. Seven in ten would earn over €1,000, and one in five even over €2,000,” the study concludes.
On average, the income gain going from unemployment to a job is €928 net per month, and €838 for those on social integration income. Even among recipients of relatively higher allowances, the net gain remains €584.
Why work pays - for most
According to the researchers, this financial difference is largely thanks to the system of employment bonuses already in place in Belgium: the work bonus on social contributions, the fiscal employment bonus, and the social work bonus applied through personal income tax.
“These targeted mechanisms are much more effective at stimulating employment than a general, costly tax cut,” says Professor Ive Marx, who led the research with colleagues Elise Aerts and Gerlinde Verbist.
For most workers, these measures already make a significant difference, helping to ensure that returning to work brings a clear financial benefit.
The exceptions: when work doesn’t pay enough
Still, not everyone benefits equally. The study identifies several “at-risk profiles” where taking up a job offers little to no financial advantage - and may even result in a loss once secondary costs are included.
Single mothers with low qualifications or households entirely dependent on social aid are the most affected. “In these cases,” the researchers write, “the combination of losing certain benefits, paying for childcare, and additional transport costs can make work barely more profitable than unemployment.”
Around 54,000 people (5.5%) would gain less than €500 a month by working - and 1.4% might even lose out financially. For these groups, returning to work can create a new kind of poverty trap rather than an incentive.
Rethinking the fiscal reform
The results come at an awkward time for the Arizona coalition. With the federal government struggling to finalise its 2026 budget and find €10 billion in savings, the study calls into question the need - or the logic - of a large-scale tax reform aimed at “making work pay.”
“It’s a legitimate political choice to lower taxes if one believes Belgians pay too much,” says Professor Marx. “But to use it as an argument for increasing work incentives - that doesn’t hold up.”
Indeed, the government’s planned reform is far more modest than campaign promises suggested. Rather than a sweeping reduction, it focuses mainly on raising the tax-free income threshold, a measure expected to boost take-home pay by about €120 net per month, not €500. Unless new policies are added, that promise may remain unfulfilled.
For a government whose identity partly rests on fiscal discipline and labour activation, the Antwerp findings are uncomfortable. They suggest that the “€500 rule” - one of the coalition’s clearest messages - may already be met by existing policy.
A reality check for the government
With days left before the government’s budget showdown, the study undercuts one of its key arguments. In Belgium, the wage gap between employment and unemployment already exists - what’s missing is access, opportunity, and trust in the system. As Professor Marx concludes: “Work does pay in Belgium - and quite a lot. The question is no longer financial. It’s political.”
