An increase in US customs duties on Belgian exports to the US is expected to have a limited impact on Brussels' economy, according to estimates from the Brussels Institute for Statistics and Analysis (IBSA).
IBSA calculates that if tariffs rise from the current 1.6% to the European-level rate of 16.3%, Brussels' economic activity would decline by approximately €34 million (-0.04%) and 291 jobs would be lost within one year.
Over the long term, defined as 7 to 10 years, exports to the US could be structurally reduced by 26%, with economic activity falling by €87 million and 741 jobs affected.
In a scenario where US tariffs double to 30%, the impact on Brussels' economy would be 1.6 to 1.7 times higher than in the baseline scenario.
However, IBSA emphasises that these are estimates, highlighting that businesses can adapt to market conditions and identify alternative opportunities.
Belgian exports to the US contribute an annual average of €336 million to Brussels' economy, representing just 0.4% of its total economic activity. "These exports do not have a significant weight in Brussels' economy," IBSA notes.
Brussels' exports to the US nearly halved (-48%) in 2025, largely due to the closure of Audi Brussels, which had previously been the city's main export to the US. From 2019 to 2024, the Brussels-Capital Region exported an annual average of €667 million in goods to the United States, accounting for around 7% of its total goods exports.
