Hungarians are heading to the polls today in a parliamentary election that could end Viktor Orbán’s 16-year tenure as prime minister.
Orbán, in power since 2010 with his Fidesz party, is seeking a fifth term. Meanwhile, opposition leader Péter Magyar’s centre-right party Tisza, active since 2024, has been leading in the polls for months.
Recent surveys suggest Tisza may secure a two-thirds majority in Hungary’s 199-seat parliament. Polling agency Median estimates the party could win between 138 and 143 seats, while voter turnout is expected to hit a record 75-80%.
Fidesz currently holds a two-thirds majority, granting it the ability to pass laws, including constitutional amendments, without opposition support. However, analysts project Fidesz’s seat count could fall to between 49 and 55. The far-right Mi Hazánk party, which might ally with Fidesz, could pass the 5% threshold to win five or six seats.
Despite Tisza’s lead, Politico suggests Orbán’s defeat may be unlikely. Over his long tenure, Orbán has maintained firm control over the electoral rules, frequently adapting them to favour his party against changes in the political landscape.
A similar scenario unfolded in 2022, when opposition parties, united under a common front, were initially expected to perform well but ultimately lost to Orbán’s party, which retained its two-thirds parliamentary majority.
Tension has escalated as the election approaches. Allegations arose of Hungary’s intelligence services attempting to discredit Tisza. Leaked phone calls reveal connections between Hungary’s foreign minister and Moscow, while Orbán accuses Magyar of intending to drag Hungary into the Ukraine war. Claims of Russian interference and accusations of large-scale vote-buying by Fidesz have also surfaced.
Last Tuesday, Magyar alleged US intervention in the election, citing a visit to Budapest by US Vice President JD Vance ahead of polling day. Vance met with Orbán, describing the meeting as indicative of “deepening ties” between the nations. Previously, Vance accused the EU of meddling in Hungary’s elections, while Orbán remains among the few EU leaders closely aligned with former US President Donald Trump.
The campaign period was marked by sharp rhetoric and the use of artificial intelligence-generated content. Pro-government Hungarian accounts circulated digitally altered images of figures like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Péter Magyar on TikTok.
Politico has called this election one of the most crucial within the European Union in 2026, noting that a victory for the Europe-friendly Magyar could shift power dynamics significantly, as Orbán has often opposed EU policies and obstructed key decisions.
