From 2032, between 100 and 350 medical graduates in Belgium may face a lack of job opportunities in healthcare, experts from KU Leuven warn.
Medical professors from KU Leuven’s Academic Centre for General Practice, along with emeritus professor Jan De Maeseneer, have highlighted the growing disconnect between the training of new doctors and their career prospects.
They argue either admission to medical studies should align with future job availability, or students should be informed that obtaining a medical degree no longer guarantees a path to becoming a general practitioner or specialist.
According to estimates, nearly a quarter of the students graduating after a six-year medical degree in 2032 will find no clear place in the healthcare system. Flemish Minister Zuhal Demir (N-VA) has increased annual admissions for medical students in Flanders to 1,878 to address shortages.
Even accounting for expected dropout rates, 1,521 students are projected to graduate in 2032, say the professors.
However, working as a doctor requires a Riziv number, and Federal Minister Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) has capped Riziv numbers for Flanders at 1,427 for 2032-2033, leaving close to 100 graduates unable to practise as physicians.
The Federal Planning Commission for Medical Supply has further argued that fewer doctors with Riziv numbers are needed to meet population demands. Their most recent advice calls for just 1,169 doctors in 2032, suggesting that even at the current cap of 1,427 Riziv numbers, an additional 250 graduates will face career uncertainties.
Minister Vandenbroucke’s office states that they are adhering to the commission’s recommendations, which focus on maintaining quality healthcare provision.
In contrast, Flemish Education Minister Zuhal Demir (N-VA) criticises the timing of these concerns, appearing just before entrance exams for medical studies.
She emphasises the need to inspire young people to pursue careers in healthcare and ensure sufficient doctors for accessible and quality care in the future.
Demir notes past inaccuracies in projections, including those by the federal planning commission, and advocates keeping a margin in admissions to prevent doctor shortages that lead to waiting lists or patient stops.
She also points out that medical graduates often transition into non-Riziv careers, such as occupational medicine, preventive healthcare, school counselling, research, and other medical roles where additional doctors remain highly in demand.
