Spending cuts decided since 2025 by Belgium’s Arizona government have fallen mainly on social security, while their impact on the budget has remained limited.
This is according to a new analysis by the Athéna experts’ collective, which French-speaking financial daily L’Echo reported on Thursday.
In its first note, Athéna, a new independent think tank succeeding the Éconosphères network and describing itself as pluralist and progressive, examined the budget of Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s government.
Social security accounts for the largest share of the cuts, representing 46% of all net savings, or about €32 billion over the full term.
The measures include freezing the welfare envelope, which allows social benefits to keep pace with the cost of living, for savings of €8.4 billion.
Time limits on unemployment benefits account for €8.3 billion, while measures targeting people unable to work are expected to save €5.4 billion.
Pension reform is also projected to save €5.4 billion, while healthcare cuts make up a further €2.8 billion.
Athéna says that if the projected public deficit for 2029 at the time the government took office, €43 billion, is taken as the starting point and all announced savings by 2029 are added, the deficit should have fallen to €18.6 billion, or 2.5% of GDP.
However, projections published in March 2026 point instead to a 2029 deficit of €35.8 billion, equivalent to 4.9% of GDP.
According to the study’s authors, macroeconomic factors alone do not explain the size of the gap.
They argue that revenue assumptions were overly optimistic and that the multiplier effects of austerity measures were underestimated, with weaker domestic demand and employment in turn dragging down economic activity and tax receipts.
