The upcoming NATO defence spending standard is causing controversy within the federal majority.
This weekend, MR, Vooruit, and CD&V deemed the 5% of GDP target completely unrealistic, even as Prime Minister Bart De Wever clarified last Thursday in Parliament that there is little room for discussion among Allies regarding the standard itself; only the terms and conditions can be adjusted.
Shortly after taking office and due to geopolitical upheavals following Donald Trump’s inauguration, the Arizona government decided to aim for the long-standing goal of allocating 2% of GDP to defence this year, as opposed to the initially planned 2029. However, this significant effort might become obsolete by the end of the month, after the NATO summit in The Hague, where a 5% standard is expected to be set.
Georges-Louis Bouchez, President of MR, described the 5% military spending as “collective hysteria” in Le Soir. Conner Rousseau, President of Vooruit, labelled these figures as “ridiculous” in De Standaard, adding, “Even the United States hasn’t reached this target.” CD&V Vice Prime Minister Vincent Van Peteghem, in Het Nieuwsblad, stated, “We decided to spend 2% on defence this year, half more than before. In our current situation, it’s impossible to do more.”
Recent feedback from NATO meetings does not inspire optimism. On 15 May, during discussions in Antalya, Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Prévot (Les Engagés) noted that Belgium is among the few countries advocating for moderation within the Alliance.
Prime Minister De Wever expressed doubts about discussing the standard itself but hoped negotiations on its terms were still possible.
He believes the growing gap between European countries is more to blame than American pressure. Northern European, Baltic states, Poland, and Germany are aiming or already reaching 3.5% of GDP, while others such as Belgium, Spain, and Italy lag behind.
The 5% comprises two parts: 3.5% dedicated to strictly military expenses and 1.5% for other costs like infrastructure development, cybersecurity—where MR has been vocal in recent weeks—and more.
The focus will primarily be on reaching the 3.5% military spending goal by 2032 or 2035. Some countries propose a mid-term review to accommodate geopolitical shifts. There’s also a question of whether military support to Ukraine will count as a strict military expense, which is vital for Belgium, considering its one-billion-per-year commitment funded by Euroclear, where Russian assets are frozen.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister De Wever remains cautious. The government will assess feasible actions post-NATO summit. “We will convene to determine how we can respond to the demanded commitments. This response must balance our regained credibility within NATO with our budgetary trajectory,” De Wever explained.
Government sources suggest that any spending beyond 2% is likely a task for the next legislature.
