Belgium’s heavy reliance on international trade leaves it particularly exposed to geopolitical tensions, social fragmentation, and disinformation.
A specialised analysis by insurer Marsh, based on the World Economic Forum's annual global risks report, was released on Wednesday.
Globally, the report highlights geo-economic confrontations, armed state conflicts, extreme weather events, social polarisation, and disinformation as the top short-term threats.
Jan Van Calster, of Marsh, emphasised that these risks are especially relevant to Belgium.
Belgium's open economy, focused on exports, makes it vulnerable in an increasingly uncertain world, he said.
Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and border closures are no longer abstract threats.
He added that many business leaders are questioning whom they can still trade with reliably, both outside Europe and occasionally within the EU itself. This has complicated economic activity for the country.
Companies need stability to decide where to invest, which markets to target, and how to shape their strategies, Van Calster remarked.
With 2026 projected to bring heightened uncertainty, flexibility has become critical. Business strategies must be continuously adjusted based on realistic risk evaluations, he stated.
Inflation remains a major concern for Belgian businesses, despite being given less emphasis in the global report.
Van Calster warned that increased government spending on defence could strain Belgium’s social model, exacerbating economic insecurity.
Inflation and reduced purchasing power are further deepening social divides, which could heighten tensions and polarisation, with economic consequences.
Environmental risks have been receiving less attention due to more pressing immediate challenges, yet they remain significant, Van Calster noted.
Belgium faces tangible risks related to critical infrastructure, particularly energy and communication networks in the North Sea, as well as the ports and coastal areas, which are vulnerable to climate change and geopolitical pressures.
