Maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C are projected to affect over 350 million people across Europe (excluding Turkey), representing nearly two-thirds of the population, according to AFP estimates.
These figures were calculated using forecasts from Germany's meteorological service and 2025 population projections by the Joint Research Centre, aligning with data from the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard.
At least 94 million people in Europe are expected to experience temperatures above 35°C at some point on Wednesday, with the majority located in France (50 million) and Spain (20 million).
In mainland France, nearly the entire population is expected to experience temperatures surpassing 30°C. In Spain, 38 million residents will be affected.
Record-breaking Belgium
In Belgium, Wednesday is the hottest 24 June since records began. The country will see temperatures peak at up to 37°C, particularly in urban areas.
Night-time temperatures are forecast to range between 19°C and 23°C in most places, except in the Ardennes, where minimums will locally drop to between 14°C and 19°C. An orange alert has been issued nationwide until Saturday, extending to Sunday for Liège and Luxembourg provinces.
Other countries, including Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Germany, and Hungary, are also set to experience widespread heatwave conditions.
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AFP's data was derived using a method similar to that of Klimadashboard, combining forecasts from the German meteorological agency Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) with population density data. Residents in an area were counted if the model predicted temperatures exceeding 30°C or 35°C at any point during the day on Wednesday.
The model, which has an approximate precision of 6.5 km, does not fully capture urban heat islands, according to David Jablonski of Klimadashboard. As a result, the analysis "likely underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas", the NGO stated on its 'European Heat Tracker' website.
