For the first time, more than half of empty cigarette packets collected in Belgium came from products either bought abroad or counterfeited, according to new figures from tobacco industry federation Cimabel.
The proportion reached 50.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up sharply from 44.4% at the end of 2025 and 33.1% a year earlier.
Of the total, 46% were cigarettes not intended for the Belgian market, while 4.6% were counterfeit.
"The fact that more than half of the cigarettes consumed in Belgium are now either not taxed in our country or counterfeit should serve as a wake-up call," said Cimabel president Christine De Baets.
However, the study cannot determine whether cigarettes bought abroad were brought into Belgium legally, within travellers' allowances, or entered the country through illicit trade.
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Cimabel nevertheless argued that a growing share of cigarette consumption is bypassing Belgian retailers and the country's tax system.
The findings are based on an independent collection of 2,800 empty packets, representing 59,320 cigarettes, across 18 Belgian cities. The international investigation and business intelligence firm WSPM Group carried out the survey.
The share of foreign and counterfeit cigarettes increased in 14 of the 18 cities compared with the end of 2025. It exceeded 50% in eight.
Leuven recorded the highest proportion, at 61.7%, followed by Genk at 57.3% and Charleroi at 54.8%.
Bulgaria was the main country of origin, accounting for 30% of the cigarettes identified, almost double the 15.7% recorded a year earlier. Luxembourg accounted for 5.3% and Turkey for 2.1%.
Cimabel estimates the market represents a theoretical €2.6 billion in tax revenue for Belgium.
Tobacco remains responsible for around 9,500 deaths in Belgium every year, according to the latest figures from public health institute Sciensano.
