The different paths for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) present different challenges in balancing productivity, environmental concerns, and food security, according to a new analysis by the European Commission.
The report, using detailed economic and environmental modelling, sets out several possible futures — showing that each path brings both opportunities and trade-offs.
It explores three scenarios beyond the current system: one focused on boosting productivity and investment, another on prioritising environmental and climate goals, and a third imagining a Europe with no CAP at all.
Productivity vs environment
Redirecting funds towards farm competitiveness, the productivity-focused scenario would lead to a 2.7% increase in EU agricultural output by 2040, lower food prices, and a stronger trade position.
However, these gains come with increased greenhouse gas emissions and higher levels of fertiliser pollution, the analysis warns.
Alternatively, an approach that channels CAP resources into environmental protection would cut EU emissions and nitrogen pollution, create 90,000 new jobs, and foster more diverse crops.
Yet the green scenario would also shrink EU agricultural output by 4%, push up food prices, and reduce Europe’s ability to supply its own food — ultimately worsening its trade balance.
The report highlights a dilemma: targeting lower emissions at home could simply shift the problem elsewhere.
Because the EU is generally more efficient at producing food with lower emissions, cutting back on European production may mean more food is produced in countries with less climate-friendly methods — a phenomenon called “emission leakage”.
In the scenario where the CAP is removed entirely, the researchers predict sharp falls in farm income — particularly among small and vulnerable farms — a drop in food production, lost jobs, and increased cost of food for poorer households.
Without the CAP's support, the study finds, Europe risks both economic disruption and increased global emissions.
