The fragile ceasefire in the Iran – Israel war which was announced by US President Donald Trump last Tuesday and imposed on both sides still holds, despite the lack of any written agreement, but the war in Gaza drags on while the EU’s role in mediating sustainable peace solutions is uncertain.
The European Council last week dealt with both Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East after the ceasefire in the Iran – Israel war. The Council conclusions on Ukraine were brief because of lack of unanimity among all 27 Member States.
As regards the Middle East, the Council addressed in some detail the latest developments in the region, in particular the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the latest developments as regards Iran.
The Council calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the unconditional release of all hostages, leading to a permanent end to hostilities. It “deplores” the refusal of Hamas to hand over the remaining hostages. It also “deplores the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, the unacceptable number of civilian casualties and the levels of starvation.”
It calls on Israel to “fully lift its blockade on Gaza, to allow immediate, unimpeded access and sustained distribution of humanitarian assistance at scale into and throughout Gaza and to enable the UN and its agencies, and humanitarian organisations, to work independently and impartially to save lives and reduce suffering”.
On Iran, the European Council recalled that the EU has always been clear that Iran must never be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and that it must comply with its legally binding nuclear safeguard obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. “The EU will continue to contribute to all diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and to bring about a lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, which can only be achieved through negotiations.”
Diplomatic talks with Iran
The Israeli and American strikes against three nuclear sites in Iran caused significant damage to them and have probably made them inoperable. However, assessments differ on whether they were totally destroyed or if Iran will have the capacity and political will to continue its nuclear programme.
According to Rafael Grossi, Director – General of IAEA, Iran could operate centrifuges to produce enriched uranium within a few months, especially if it managed to hide some centrifuges and move the stockpile of 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60 % before the US attack against the main nuclear site in Fordo. There is also uncertainty after a vote in the Iranian parliament if Iran will cooperate with IAEA.
Trump himself, after he declared that the nuclear sites were totally obliterated, seems not to insist on the need for diplomatic talks with Iran to close a written agreement. When asked about it at the NATO summit in the Hague last week, he replied “that we are going to talk to the Iranians next week. We may sign a deal, I don't know … I don't care if I have a deal or not."
This runs against EU’s policy. EU has also leverage – the reactivation of the snapback mechanism which allows for the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran if it violates the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPoA).
In all recent statements, EU leaders have underlined the need for diplomacy. High Representative Kaja Kallas said after the foreign affairs council that everybody in the EU is concerned about Iran’s nuclear program but there are also other issues such as cyber and hybrid attacks, the detention of European citizens, Iran’s support to Russia and its ballistic missile programme.
“.We raised these issues, and Iran was saying that they are willing to talk about these issues. Today (23 June), also, there was a broad consensus among the European countries that we need to continue these discussions, because diplomacy is the way to settle these things long term to have an agreement with Iran to not to have a nuclear weapon, and the other concerns that we also have.”
Review of association agreement
The European Council took also note of the report on Israel’s compliance with Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement and invited the other EU institutions to “continue discussions on a follow-up, as appropriate, in July 2025, taking into account the evolution of the situation on the ground”.
The report was presented by High Representative Kaja Kallas at the Foreign Affairs Council meeting last Monday following a review which was carried out by her services (EEAS). The document was circulated to the Member States leaked to media ahead of the meeting. It is still considered an “internal” document by EEAS which refuses to disclose it.
According to the leaked document, EEAS concluded, “on the basis of the assessments made by international institutions there are indications that Israel would be in breach of its human rights obligations under article 2 of the Association Agreement”. The conclusion follows a list of possible human rights violations by Israel in both Gaza and the West Bank.
The Israeli government rejected the allegations and accused the EU of bias but recent articles in Haaretz, Israel’s leading opposition newspaper, has verified the information. The Palestinian civilian population has been displaced to ca 20 % of the Gaza Strip and is risking their lives when trying to collect the insufficient humanitarian aid distributed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
The articles quote Israeli soldiers and officers who say that they have been ordered to shoot on civilians, although they are not endangering them, when they are approaching the collection points outside the allowed hours. Incidents like these happen almost daily since GHF took over the distribution of aid from UN agencies and international humanitarian organisations and are seldom investigated by the army.
Ending the war in Gaza
In her press remarks after the foreign affairs council meeting, Kaja Kallas underlined the need to improve the situation on the ground before any decision is taken on action following the review. She admitted that the review was clear about Israel’s violations of article 2 but a majority of Member States wanted to contact the Israeli government and look at how the situation can be improved.
The situation can only improve if the war in Gaza ends now after the Iran – Israel war has ended with a ceasefire. It was expected that the outcome of the war would offer a momentum and opportunity for Hamas and Israel to agree on a ceasefire-hostage deal based on US envoy Steve Witkoff’s proposal or a modified version of it.
There were several reasons for this optimism. Iran which supported Hamas and knew about it plans to attack Israel (but not the exact date) is weakened. This has also weakened Hamas which cannot count on Iran’s active support any longer.
Until now, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had doubled down on his conditions for ending the war in Gaza, although he admitted that Hamas does not pose any threat to Israel any longer. In the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government agreed to a political solution although Hezbollah, though heavily decimated, was not defeated and still has some military capability.
Furthermore, after what Netanyahu has described as a “historic victory” against Iran, removing two existential threats (nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles), he increased his chances to win next elections. It is hardly likely that his extremist coalition partners, who threatened to dissolve the government if he ends the war in Gaza, will make true on their threats.
A majority of the Israeli population wants to end the war in Gaza and bring home the hostages through a deal with Hamas. But Netanyahu is still evasive about his intentions and continues to repeat the mantra that only military pressure on Hamas will achieve the elusive war goals.
In his “victory speech” last week, he said that “We must complete the campaign against the Iranian axis, defeat Hamas and bring about the release of all our hostages.” To the families of the hostages, he claimed that his government has “not ceased for a moment, even a single one, including during this war, from our efforts to return home all of our hostages”, without saying how it will be accomplished.
US President Donald Trump wrote recently on his social media ‘MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!’. Without American pressure and EU diplomacy, the senseless war in Gaza risks continuing, causing further suffering and destruction, undermining Israel’s standing in the world, fueling antisemitism, and polarizing Israeli society.
