Those dreaming of a White Christmas in Brussels, the first in well over a decade, are expected to be disappointed this year.
According to the latest forecasts, Brussels is set for a cold but largely dry Christmas, with forecasters now saying the chances of snow over the festive days are extremely low.
Earlier this month, Belgium experienced an unusually mild spell, with temperatures climbing as much as 7°C above seasonal averages and peaking near 14°C. At the time, meteorologists still allowed for a small chance of a white Christmas.
That possibility has now almost disappeared. According to the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI), there is around a 95% chance that Brussels will not see snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.
The colder air expected over the festive period will come from the continent and is forecast to be very dry, meaning frost but no snowfall.
Daytime temperatures in the capital are expected to struggle to rise above 2°C or 3°C around Christmas, with freezing conditions returning overnight. Despite the cold, no precipitation is currently forecast.
The picture shows a street covered with snow in Brussels, Friday, 24 December 2010. Brussels and most of Belgium were covered with a big layer of snow on Christmas Eve. And for the first time since 1964, Christmas Day was a white one. Credit: Belga/Johanna Geron.
Christmas Eve is expected to start with low cloud, before brighter spells develop from the north-east. Temperatures should range between -2°C and +3°C, with a sharp easterly to north-easterly wind making it feel colder still.
On Christmas Day, conditions are expected to remain dry and mostly sunny, with temperatures hovering around 0°C.
While this rules out a white Christmas for Brussels, there may still be a small twist before the year ends.
The RMI say that around 30 and 31 December, a few snowflakes could fall in the Ardennes and the Hautes Fagnes. Given the cold conditions, a brief wintry surprise elsewhere in the country cannot be completely ruled out, although confidence remains low at this stage.
Picture shows a street covered with snow, in Brussels, Friday 24 December 2010. Brussels and most of Belgium were covered with a big layer of snow on Christmas eve. And for the first time since 1964, also Christmas Day was a white one. Credit : Belga/Johanna Geron.
Looking further ahead, seasonal forecasts suggest January is unlikely to be particularly cold overall. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above average, although a short cold snap at the start of the month is still possible before milder conditions return.
For now, Brussels residents can expect a frosty and wintry-feeling Christmas, but any real chance of snow may have to wait until the New Year, if it arrives at all.
What is a white Christmas?
Dreams of a White Christmas were popularised by the eponymous 1942 song by Bing Crosby, which first appeared in the 1942 film Holiday Inn and then again in 1954 with White Christmas.
Yet the technical definition of a white Christmas is just a single snowflake recorded falling at any point during the 24 hours of 25 December.
Snow already lying on the ground on Christmas Day does not count.
According to David Dehenauw, the head of forecasting at the RMI, snow falling on Christmas Day is rare for most of us – and becoming rarer.
The last time Belgium saw a widespread white Christmas was back in 2010, when snow fell at 19% of weather stations and, very unusually, 83% of stations reported snow lying on the ground.
