Indexation freezes for some wages and benefits, planned by the Federal Government, will save €1.2 billion by 2030, according to the calculations by the Planning Bureau, De Tijd and L'Echo reported on Tuesday.
The government intends to cap indexation on benefits exceeding €2,000 and salaries exceeding €4,000 gross. This dual measure will lead to a 0.35% decrease in household disposable income and a 0.13% decrease in consumption.
However, the impact on GDP growth (-0.02%) and employment growth (0.07%) is expected to remain limited.
The coalition hopes the mechanism can take effect on 1 June. Last week, however, it had to postpone the vote on the program law that includes these index adjustments, pending the opinion of the two social consultation bodies. This opinion is expected to be finalised on Tuesday.
Regarding the budget, the Planning Bureau estimated the shortfall for the state at over €1 billion (€922 million in direct taxes and €164 million in social security contributions). This decrease in revenue is nevertheless largely offset by an estimated €2.4 billion reduction in spending.
The Planning Bureau's analysis of the controversial measure was sent to the trade unions and employers last week, in preparation for a report they are due to publish in the coming days. The trade unions are warning of a loss of purchasing power.
According to De Tijd, the impact of the measure on businesses is not yet entirely clear. Employers risk having to pay out in the coming years what they save in wage costs.
In its estimates, the Federal Planning Bureau did not factor in the postponement of the measure's entry into force from April to June.
