Warm ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific are fuelling the development of a climate pattern, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring warm and cool phases of a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO cycle.
As of mid-May 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to warm, signalling conditions that could support the return of the climate phenomenon.
The latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres indicate an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026. The likelihood of neutral ENSO conditions has fallen to 20%, while the chances of La Niña returning are currently considered negligible.
Forecasts suggest El Niño will remain the dominant pattern through the second half of the year. For the periods July-September, August-October and September-November, the probability of El Niño conditions remains at or above 90%.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically contributes to higher global temperatures and can alter weather and rainfall patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of extreme weather events in some regions.
The organisation also said above-average temperatures are forecast across most parts of the globe between June and August.
