Icelanders have rejected resuming talks on joining the European Union in a referendum.
Professor Hendrik Vos, an expert in European politics at Ghent University, said the result was not a major blow to the EU’s appeal, though he noted that a vote in favour would have been politically helpful.
Vos said he was not surprised by the outcome. He said it had long been expected to be close and argued that campaigning against the EU is often easier, especially when it centres on promises of sovereignty and national control.
He said that message can appear convincing at first sight, even though, in today’s world, the reality is far more complex.
Many Icelanders were particularly concerned about possible EU interference in the country’s fisheries policy. At the same time, Iceland is already prosperous, has access to the EU single market and is part of the Schengen area, raising questions over whether there were enough incentives to join.
Vos said full membership would still have brought clear advantages. As an EU member, Iceland would have had a say in shaping the rules of the single market and Schengen, whereas it currently has to accept those rules without participating in the decision-making.
He also pointed to Iceland’s unstable currency and high interest rates. In his view, joining the eurozone would be relatively straightforward for the country and could offer greater monetary stability, particularly for younger people hoping to buy property.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s enlargement policy has gained fresh momentum. Vos said the Icelandic vote should not be seen as a setback for that wider strategy.
He added, however, that a yes vote would have been useful. With Montenegro already close to accession, Iceland joining the process as well could have made enlargement easier to present politically, pairing a wealthy northern country with a poorer southern one in what he described as a typically European package deal.
