Icelanders vote on Saturday on whether to reopen European Union membership talks, reviving a question that pits closer international alignment against sovereignty and control of fishing rights.
Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009, when the banking crisis left the country in deep turmoil and Brussels was seen as a possible lifeline.
But in 2015, after a new Eurosceptic government took office, Iceland halted the negotiations. Parliament never formally withdrew the application, however, meaning it remains technically valid.
The issue has now returned to the political agenda. After winning the election in late 2024, Social Democratic Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir promised a referendum on the matter.
The vote had originally been planned for 2027, but the government brought it forward after Donald Trump threatened earlier this year to take over Greenland. Icelanders were further unsettled when the US president appeared at times to confuse the two islands.
Iceland has no standing army, though it is a member of Nato and has relied on Washington for its defence for decades. But Trump’s approach has prompted Reykjavik to reassess its international position and strategic options.
The uncertainty is not limited to relations with the United States. Other major powers are also showing growing interest in the Arctic, adding to concerns over Iceland’s long-term security and place in the region.
Economic arguments have also featured prominently in the campaign. Unlike some other countries seeking closer ties with the EU, Iceland does not need membership to raise living standards.
However, the island of about 400,000 people faces sharp currency fluctuations, high interest rates and inflation. Frostadóttir has argued that joining the eurozone could bring greater financial stability.
Opponents say EU membership would not solve Iceland’s specific economic problems. As a member of the European Economic Area, the country already has access to the EU single market.
They argue that full membership would mainly mean a loss of political autonomy and self-determination. Supporters counter that Iceland would gain more influence over decisions that already affect it, since it must adopt much of EU law through the EEA arrangement.
When the debate turns to sovereignty in Iceland, it quickly comes back to fishing. The sector is central to the island’s identity, accounting for 10% of GDP and 40% of exports.
For many voters, the prospect of giving boats from other countries greater access to Iceland’s rich fishing grounds remains the biggest obstacle to EU membership. During the previous accession talks, the fisheries chapter was never even opened.
“Fisheries are in our DNA, part of our independence. It is completely unacceptable that we should share our fisheries with other countries. We will not accept that,” Gudrun Hafsteinsdóttir, leader of the centre-right Independence Party, told Reuters.
The other opposition parties are also against joining the bloc. Polls suggest the country’s more than 270,000 registered voters remain deeply divided, and turnout could prove decisive.
A victory for the “no” camp would probably settle the membership debate for a long time. A win for the “yes” side would not mean accession, only the resumption of negotiations.
The government has promised a second referendum on the outcome of any membership talks, and therefore on actual accession. That was a demand of the left-populist People’s Party, the only party in government that does not support joining the EU.
“People should see this referendum as an opportunity, not as a final decision,” Frostadóttir told AFP. “A yes would reduce the risks: everyone wants to know the future. Then there would be a concrete agreement on the table, and answers to all the questions being asked.”
Frostadóttir and her allies want to settle the issue before the next election in 2028. Progress could come quickly.
On democracy and the rule of law, Iceland already meets EU standards, and 11 of the 33 negotiating chapters had been completed during the previous accession process. This time, the government wants to open fisheries talks immediately.
It also says it is confident it can protect national control over fishing. “The difference between now and the last time is that the United Kingdom is no longer in the EU,” Foreign Minister Katrin Gunnarsdóttir told national broadcaster RUV.
“That means we are in a much stronger position and there is more understanding within the European Union when it comes to fisheries,” she said.
The European Commission has remained cautious in public. But Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has suggested that “creative solutions” may be possible.
“Some of Iceland’s specific features, especially fisheries and agriculture, are so unique that they require special attention,” she told Politico.
Kos believes accession talks could be concluded within one or two years. Iceland would become the EU member state with the smallest population, but its entry would still be a boost for enlargement policy, bringing in a wealthy, stable country in a strategically important region.
It could also help build support for the accession of poorer candidates in southern and eastern Europe.
