Americans living in Belgium are being urged to register to vote and request their absentee ballots as legal uncertainty continues to surround new US rules governing mail-in voting ahead of the November midterm elections.
A recent decision by the US Supreme Court has opened the way for the Trump administration to begin implementing parts of an executive order imposing new requirements on mail-in voting.
The Supreme Court’s order of 24 August did not determine whether the executive order or the measures developed under it are constitutional or lawful. Instead, the Court concluded that a challenge brought by 23 states and the District of Columbia was premature because the measures had not yet been implemented.
Further legal challenges were filed on 26 August, while the US Postal Service (USPS) has begun implementing the executive order despite the ongoing litigation.
The changes have sparked concern because election administration is traditionally handled by individual US states. States challenging the measures argue that the US federal government does not have the authority to impose new requirements on state-run voting systems.
The planned system would introduce new requirements concerning ballot envelopes, unique barcodes and information provided by state election authorities. It could also require states to supply lists of mail voters to the USPS.
'Personal crusade against mail-in voting'
For Robin de Wouters, Chair of Democrats Abroad Belgium, the measures are part of the Trump administration's broader opposition to mail-in voting. "One of the ways the administration is trying to limit the damage as the midterm elections approach is through this campaign against mail-in voting," de Wouters told The Brussels Times.
Mail-in voting has existed in the United States for decades, but its use expanded significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic. It subsequently became central to President Donald Trump's claims that the 2020 election had been stolen.
"It remains a personal crusade against mail-in voting, which is extremely widely used in the United States but is obviously crucial for Americans living abroad," de Wouters said.
The rules governing absentee voting differ from state to state. Some states allow overseas voters to return ballots electronically, while others require them to be returned by post.
For Americans abroad, the uncertainty is particularly significant. They depend on absentee-voting procedures and, in many cases, international postal services to ensure their ballots reach the US in time.
19 September deadline
The timing is particularly sensitive because overseas voters face an earlier deadline than election day itself.
Ballots must be sent 45 days before election day, meaning 19 September this year. "This is an important date for us abroad because we don't vote on 3 November in the same way as people physically present in the United States. We have to vote much earlier," de Wouters said.
US federal law requires states to send absentee ballots to eligible overseas and military voters at least 45 days before a federal election when a valid request has been received by the applicable deadline.
Potential costs of up to €50 for overseas voters
One potential consequence for Americans abroad could be having to rely on private international delivery services rather than ordinary USPS mail. "The unfair solution for overseas voters would be to use international postal services such as FedEx, UPS, TNT or DHL instead of the USPS," de Wouters said.
Some overseas voters have already faced costs of around €40 or €50 to send their ballots to the United States. "I can understand that many people will say that they don't want to pay that amount simply to send their ballot to the United States," he said.
The impact of the new rules will depend on the requirements of each state and on how individual overseas voters receive and return their ballots.
De Wouters said there is nevertheless hope that the legal dispute will not significantly affect this year's midterms. "Technically, most people abroad receive their ballots by email," he said.
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Democrats Abroad Belgium is now trying to reach as many eligible US citizens in Belgium as possible and encourage them to take action before the September deadline. "This decision does not take away the right of Americans abroad to vote, and it should not discourage anyone from participating," de Wouters said. "But it is a clear reminder that our democracy is at risk."
Statbel estimates that more than 24,000 North Americans are living in Belgium, including Canadians. The figure is based on nationality statistics and may not capture every American citizen living in Belgium, including some dual nationals.
Could overseas votes prove decisive?
Although Americans living abroad represent only a small proportion of the electorate, their votes can matter in closely contested races. "At the last elections, around 10% of Americans living abroad voted," de Wouters said.
The overseas vote can nevertheless become significant in closely fought states. "In the 2020 election, for example, overseas Democrats were effectively larger than the margin of victory in Georgia and Arizona," he said. Joe Biden won Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes and Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020.
"You can therefore argue that, in those states, the overseas vote was potentially decisive for Biden's victory," de Wouters said, while acknowledging that the impact is not always as clear in every race.
The 3 November elections will determine control of both chambers of Congress and are being closely watched as a major test of the Trump administration's political standing. "Normally, midterm elections receive relatively little international attention," de Wouters said. "But with Trump, nothing really goes unnoticed anymore."
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