Food prices are at risk of increasing amid successive heatwaves and ongoing conflict in the Middle East, L’Echo reported on Wednesday.
Temperatures this summer have broken several heat records across Europe. Belgium was among the countries affected by heatwaves in recent months, with the June heatwave the deadliest in the country's history.
In addition to health consequences, the changes to the climate may drive up the prices of food in supermarkets, as the weather is expected to impact harvests, a reality already faced by several fruit growers in the country.
The risk of prices rising is further aggravated by the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has caused a surge in prices of some fertilisers due to supply disruptions.
Nonetheless, the impact of rising fertiliser prices on consumers is not easy to predict as farmers and food growers often operate with contracts that can take into account possible varying prices of agricultural equipment, economist Tom Simonts explained to L’Echo.
While it is not easy to predict future food inflation rates amid unstable geopolitical situations and weather, economist and professor Eric Dor told the French-language daily that he expects a noticeable rise in food prices as early as this autumn.
Cost of meat and fish going up
The news comes just weeks after the Belgian consumer group Testachats reported that the "supermarket inflation rate” dropped below zero for the first time in five years, with several food products being notably cheaper in June.
Fruit and vegetables saw the most notable decreases, with seedless grapes 13% cheaper, mangoes down 10%, and items like cauliflower and blueberries each 6% less expensive. Potatoes experienced a 10% price drop due to a strong harvest and surplus supply over the past year.
Not all items have become cheaper, however. Fresh meat and fish prices have risen, with lamb costing 14% more, cod up 10%, turkey fillet increasing by 9%, and canned tuna 6% higher. Coffee prices also continue to climb.
Cross-border shopping
For those looking to save money, prices are generally lower in France compared to Belgium. According to the Belgian Food Industry Federation, in 2023, more than one in three Belgians went across the border to a neighbouring country to do their shopping every five weeks.
A study by Gondola Academy and Daltix in 2023 found that, on average, groceries and dry goods were up to 44% less expensive in France than in Belgium.
The reason for the large price gaps between Belgian and French products is down to key factors: inflation and taxes. Unlike in Belgium, France takes a much more interventionist approach to ensure relatively low food prices.
In Belgium, meanwhile, the state taxes groceries at a much higher rate. The standard VAT rate in Belgium is 21%, which applies to most goods and services.
The Federal Government wants to discourage cross-border shopping and is investigating which excise duties can be reduced with this aim in mind.
